New Year, New Market…or Old Market?
We hope you had a fantastic holiday season and wish you a healthy, happy and prosperous 2023!
As we look further into 2023 we are expecting to see the market continue to be trending closer to the a more average non covid year given our lack of inventory and interest rates hikes slowing different market segments of our market. We see our sales volume being between the 5 year pre-covid 2014-2019 average of 518 properties sold and the 2009-2019 sales volume of 455.
The last few years have been such a deviation for real estate markets worldwide and Canmore is no exception. Prior to 2022 when we look at total number of sales in the Canmore Market, from 2000 to 2019 the annual sales volume was 439 total sales and an average sale volume of 475 if we include the 2020 and 2021 record highs. This is important to note as 2022 saw 556 total sales which is less than 1% lower than the 561 total sales in 2019.
Looking at the quarterly sales volume we did see a little dip in the number of properties sold in the 3rd quarter but the market finished strong with the highest sales volume 4th quarter on record excluding 2020/2021. The dip in the 3rd quarter seems to be tied to the hesitation with the rise in interest rates along with lower inventory but the buyers were able to feel more confident going into the 4th quarter to more than make up for that slow down.
The listing inventory has such a strong effect on the market, as do interest rates but from opposite ends , the average inventory on January 1st for each of the 5 previous years prior to the pandemic was 172 active listings, this year the market has 81 active listings which is the 3rd lowest number of listings of all time. (trailing only Jan and Feb 2022) The 1st time buyer and local move up market is slower as the higher interest rates are having their intended consequence, slow down the market. Some buyers who are not needing financing are waiting on making a purchase hoping for prices to
come down materially but we do not see that happening unless there are major job losses locally and regionally for a sustained period which again we are not seeing the factors that would lead to that situation. Year over year sale prices in all market segments are showing increases on average between 10 and 30% depending on property segment.
We do see a lot of media attention talking about the markets slowing down and prices adjusting however we have seen the craziness of the 2021 market post pandemic balance out and while pricing is not equal to the multiple offer supported prices of late 2020 and 2021 we do see stability with many buyers not needing financing and should properties be priced correctly they are selling. (as the lack of inventory shows) We see prices being almost flat this year.
As always, if you are wondering about the value of your home please let us know we are happy to update you on the current market!
winter is here !!!
While we enjoyed one of the best and longest falls either of us can remember, winter has arrived and with it our thoughts have turned to our 30th Annual Food Drive in early December (see details below) along with skiing, snowshoeing and all the amazing activities in our mountain paradise.
Our market is one that many are struggling to understand. While it has felt for many like the market has taken a step back and with many price reductions, we can see how it could be viewed that way. Many price reductions we are seeing is sellers that have hoped to capture some of the higher prices seen earlier this year and those reductions are bringing the prices down to actual market pricing
We are seeing more pressures on local buyers with increases in interest rates and the lack of options on the market but less of an effect from second home buyers as they often have less concern for the financing aspect of the purchase.
Understanding that the last few years have been so different with the pandemic and resulting effects it had on the market we like to compare our current market to 2017 thru 2019. Our market total of active listings on November 1st this year is 138 compared to the average number of active listings from 2017 thru 2019 being 204 (so 32% less inventory). For total sales we saw 32 in October 2022 and the average from 2017 to 2019 was 42 (so 24% less sales).
it is easy to look at the reduction in sales as a slow down of the market but it would be naive to say that without referencing the lack of inventory.
As mentioned above and below, we are proud to announce once again, that our 30th Annual Royal LePage Food Bank Drive will be on Tuesday December 6th. This is our biggest ask of the year, as we always need help that night for a few hours. Please give us a call if you can help out that night with a bit of your time, a donation of non-perishable food or a monetary donation.
Lastly, we are here to help you, or anyone you know for all your real estate needs. We are never too busy for your referrals!